Tuesday, August 22, 2006

Conservative Opinion Poll Lead Points to a Conservative Majority

The latest Guardian / ICM poll puts the parties as follows:

Conservative - 40%
Labour - 31%
Lib Dem - 22%

This would give David Cameron a working majority of 10 seats in the House of Commons if the poll was reflected in the next General Election result.

This is an excellent result for David Cameron. It is a truely dreadful result for Labour who have dropped to a 19 year low.

Most intesting though (any worrying) is that it requires a nine point lead for the Conservatives to form a majority. This is because the current constituency boundaries have a built in bias to Labour. There will be boundary changes before the next General Election. However this prediction takes account of these changes.

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